The researchers used weather data from the previous few months, as well as typical weather patterns from last year, to predict community spread of COVID-19 within the next few weeks.
The next step is to determine if weather and climate forecasts could make the predictions more reliable.
Study co-author Dr. Anthony Amoroso said, “I think what is important is that this is a testable hypothesis.” Amoroso is an associate professor of medicine at UMSOM and chief of clinical care programs for IHV.
“If it holds true, it could be very helpful for health system preparation, surveillance and containment efforts,” he added in an institute news release.
The study was published online June 11 in JAMA Network Open.
According to Dr. Robert Gallo, an IHV co-founder and director, co-founder and chairman of the International Scientific Leadership Board of GVN, and a professor at UMSOM, “Through this extensive research, it has been determined that weather modeling could potentially explain the spread of COVID-19, making it possible to predict the regions that are most likely to be at higher risk of significant community spread in the near future.”
